01 August 2012

unexpected visit by Ernesto?

source: www.crownweather.com
As you probably know (and we've written about it here) it is Hurricane Season in the Caribbean and that's why we're staying in Grenada at the moment. So far there was no real threat to come up on the horizon. But since yesterday we are reading the weather emails more thoroughly and exchanging news on a regular basis with other cruisers.
We are not yet sure if we have to go into "Hurricane Mode" or not. In today's Tropical Interim by Chris Parker (Marine Weather Center) the forecast said:  
Folks from Martinique-Grenada could be in for a direct hit by a strong TropicalStorm (possibly a Cat1 Hurricane, but more likely a strong TropicalStorm) somewhere in this area - IF there's development (there's a 50% chance this will not develop).
Now the chance is 50% that the area of low pressure in the Atlantic (called Invest99L) will strengthen into Tropical Storm Ernesto but what areas in the Eastern Caribbean will be affected is still uncertain: First it was Martinique then Trinidad/Tobago and now Grenada. The later two are normally very unlikely to be hit by hurricanes. But with the uncertainty between the different models (GFS, European, Canadian) there is no way to run, besides that we feel very safe in the Port Louis Marina. Officially it should withstand a Cat3 hurricane. So let's keep the fingers crossed there is no need to proof that!

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